Four Challenges Faced by "Opposition Alliance"
United Daily News, September 29, 2023
Chairman Eric Chu of the Kuomintang (KMT) has been strongly advocating for a coalition of opposition presidential candidates to reclaim political power. But as the election countdown enters the final 100 days, the proposed integration of the KMT and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) is still only a slogan. The current stalemate is caused by four challenges: First, the KMT and TPP differ in election goals. Next, persuading their respective supporters to back the coalition is difficult. Third, with many heavyweights within the party, it is unclear who has the final say in the KMT. Finally, independent candidate Terry Gou is actively collecting signatures to file his campaign.
These four questions have no easy solution, and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate William Lai is taking advantage of a divided opposition and enjoying a comfortable lead.
Unseating DPP Not the Only Goal for KMT, TPP
For the KMT, returning to power is to prevent this grand old party from continuing to decline, and if it cannot win this election, it will be forced to wait for another four years. During this period of waiting, many party supporters will jump off the boat to seek other political shelter. This was the case for the People First Party (PFP) during their wait for elections. Also, because the KMT remains obsessed with its former political status, it is difficult for them not to take the lead in the proposed political alliance.
On the other hand, whether Ko can win the presidency is not necessarily the goal of the TPP. After all, this young three-year-old party has yet to possess the support of a stable constituency and nationwide popularity. None of the TPP’s local candidates for legislator is expected to win. If Ko were really elected as the president, it may be the beginning of a problem. Therefore, expanding the party’s influence in the Legislative Yuan or a coalition government is more pragmatic and prioritized by the TPP. However, Ko still possesses momentum and an advantageous position in most opinion polls, and with the KMT already insisting that their candidate cannot be the running mate before negotiations have even started, Ko naturally would not yield first.
Convincing Hawkish Factions and Voters to Accept Opposition Alliance
Not only does the KMT have hardliners like King Pu-tsung, Hou’s campaign director, that are committed to fighting until the end, but the PFP also has the same die-hard supporters to insist on "going their own way." Vivian Huang, director of Ko’s campaign, witnessed the rise and fall of the TPP and is a typical representative of defending this approach. She argues that KMT and DPP have in mind only the number of votes but not the people’s well-being in heart, and the fact that they have been repeating the same actions but expecting different results is insane and stupid. A KMT and TPP alliance should be based on the "harmony" of political ideals and not the exchange of political interests.
Moreover, elections are not math problems. A coalition between Hou and Ko, who each have more than 20 percent support, may not necessarily reverse the outcome of the upcoming election. There still exists huge differences in political stances between KMT and TPP supporters. Some KMT supporters feel that Ko is an opportunist, and the KMT cannot win Ko supporters who already disagree with the KMT. Therefore, the answer rests upon further persuasion and lobbying rather than pure mathematical calculation.
Who Has Final Say in KMT, Chu or Hou? Much Coordination Needed in KMT Post-Election
Even though Chairman Eric Chu of the KMT keeps advocating for an opposition coalition, it does not matter if he likes to play the role of “head coach” or “boss,” Chu himself is not a player or candidate in the game. The decision to seek a healthy way to compete or cooperate with Ko would be determined by Hou. According to the Hou campaign’s plan, after his successful U.S. visit which helped him move up his opinion polls support to second place, Hou would take one month to exert his utmost efforts in maximizing his support before he registers in the Central Election Committee as an official candidate
If Hou’s efforts can allow him to lead better margins against Ko in the polls, he can gain a better bargaining position with Ko’s campaign. It is not yet time to compromise with Ko to discuss a coalition, and it is unlikely that Hou would let Chu initiate a negotiation on Hou’s behalf.
What's more complicated is that various factions of the KMT may have their own views post-election. If they successfully replace the DPP, would Chu, who cannot become the president himself, become premier? It is important to note the role of premier is perhaps Ko’s first choice, so there is still room for the KMT to “harmonize" or "coordinate" differences. Moreover, there are people hoping for an internal power redistribution in the KMT after the election, and those who helped in forming a winning Hou-Ko coalition will have a greater power in discourse, which explains why they are more eager to coordinate a coalition between Hou and Ko than the candidates themselves.
Gou’s Insistence Detracts from Coalition Efforts
Terry Gou has launched a no-retreat campaign position, trying to reach peace by war. His attempt to force the KMT and TPP to yield him a role to be the common leader in the non-DPP coalition receives constant ignorance. KMT has issued an order to forbid its members from allying with Gou in order to preserve the KMT’s political integrity. Gou’s poor performance in recent polls reflects his marginalization by the KMT and TPP. It is foreseeable that Gou’s support will continue to decline. He has a very slim chance to succeed even if he plans to run until election day on January 13 next year.
Even though a marginalized Gou has only a very slim chance to prevail in the election, as long as he is in the game, it means that the opposition camp against the DPP cannot maximize its support. The disinformation and fake news along the way would do nothing but undermine the weak foundation of the opposition alliance and hinder the negotiation of the coalition.
Some 60 percent of respondents support ousting the DPP from power. This would be possible only when a combined opposition faces the DPP. But the KMT and TPP alliance moves nowhere because the four aforementioned challenges lie in the way. Neither the KMT nor TPP has worked out a solution due to respective calculations. In the end, not only will DPP candidate Lai run an easy campaign, but he will also win the presidency just too easily.